НСБ «Хранитель» Национальная безопасность Охранная деятельность Видеожурнал "ХРАНИТЕЛЬ"
 
 
 
 

02 january, 2007 | Ron Hamilton

Roy's article (1220726)

 

Date:        28 March 2007

From:       Ron Hamilton + Roy’s comment

Subject :  Roy's article

 

 

Dear Sergei,
 
Your tongue-in-cheek criticism of the western analysts whose work most often influences US policy decisions has me rolling on the floor laughing!!! Fantastic and funny writing. The real analysis is spot on too. Thanks for this. Well done.
 
I agree that the social contract is now the biggest issue facing Russia. I have to say that Putin needed the money and power brokers both in the top echelons of the government and the private sector to implement the most urgent reforms and programs to stabilize the country as he has done as president.
 
So, now that he has accomplished the initial reforms he may now through other mechanisms as you suggest be able to tackle the social fairness (contract) problem. Had he tackled the social issues before the other issues and attempted to redistribute the wealth more equitably with a progressive tax system he would have likely failed on all initiatives from the very beginning.
 
The most pertinent and applicable historical example of where Russia is today (socially) for me is Teddy Roosevelt's presidency. Russia today most closely resembles the US during our Robber Barron period. Politically Russia is facing the same issues of succession that President Washington faced, but he had his VP Adams to pass on the power to (a trusted, capable man) and Adams even as President continued to consult Washington. The US was blessed in that our first six Presidents were virtually indistinguishable in political ideology, character, and talent thus assuring a 40 year period of stable like-minded leadership basically continuing the revolution and providing leadership stability. They were all mostly wealthy capitalists from the landed class. 
 
I can only wonder how much Putin's reputation and great respect from the Russian people will provide him the power necessary to push through the needed social and tax reforms once out of the Kremlin. I think that he is going down in history as the Father of the modern Russian nation and in my opinion will be as revered in the future in Russia as George Washington is among Americans.
 
So I think that the number one problem is the social contract and the number two problem is the succession and continuity of Putin style stability and firm leadership.
 
You live in exciting times in Russia. 

Ron Hamilton



 

Roy’s comment:

 

 

 

Dear Ron,

I quite agree that rebuilding the state and pleasing the populace are somewhat mutually exclusive tasks, and Putin, or rather the sections of the elite he represents, did right to pursue the former first and put off the latter until a more opportune moment. Actually, he has done quite a great deal to alleviate the lot of the needy, but, as must be clear from my text, not enough. There is a mammoth task ahead, what you call a renewed social contract – and the fulfilling of that contract.

 

I wrote the article the way I wrote it in the hope of giving certain circles a nudge in the right direction (right now I am translating the piece into Russian, hoping to bring it to the attention of those circles). But I fully realize there are plenty of pitfalls on that path. You may not remember the way the original article, “Putin’s Power,” ended. In fact, it ended on a fairly pessimistic note:

 

“Now for the $64000 question: will he or won’t he? Go for scenario B, I mean? It would be highly probable if the impossible happened, the radical-liberal wing of Russia’s political spectrum, headed by a Kasyanov-type character, won the elections, and Putin were driven into opposition by force of events. Alas, even if Khodorkovsky, Gusinsky, Berezovsky, Nevzlin & Co. were allowed to take over every single TV channel, radio station and newspaper in the land, the probability of their victory in a moderately free and fair election would be a big fat zero. The most bizarre versions of Operation Successor are possible, given the electorate’s total disenchantment with the political class as a whole, but the spawning of a victorious force by the oligarchs— No, we had better leave these Freudian fantasies to the “analysts” already in the pay of those same oligarchs and other interested parties.

 

Here I come to the saddest part of my exposé, for the crucial decision obviously devolves on Putin himself – and I just do not believe Putin to be made of the stuff of greatness. A move like the one outlined in Scenario B calls for a man of the stature of Roosevelt or Churchill or De Gaulle, a great leader or just a tough one. Putin is merely a good – perhaps very good – public servant, and we in Russia are very lucky to get even someone like him. Blame it on the Soviet system, with its “negative selection,” or any other factor, but there is no escaping the fact itself. Russia, by the way, is not alone in this fix: as we observe Blair lying his head off in parliament, Berlusconi nimbly evading criminal proceedings, and George W. Bush any time, anywhere, curious phrases flit through one’s mind: “hollow men… stuffed men… Headpiece filled with straw.” And, like another poet said, “We do not choose the times, we live and die in them.” The same goes for the leaders we live and die with.

 

Sadly, it looks like Plan B will have to wait for a stronger man – and a stronger people. Looking into one’s crystal ball, one doesn’t see either emerging any time soon. No one reminds one of a man with the power of hoo-doo. “

 

Certain events in the recent past (some of them mentioned in my latest essay) have made me less pessimistic, but still not as brimful of optimism as the article may be seen to be imbued with. What I referred to as “morphing out of his bureaucratic integument” involves breaking off a multitude of personal ties with utter ruthlessness – and Putin has too much of that human element, “ruth,” to be guided by the merciless dictates of historical necessity alone. I know that that is not the picture the West has of him, but we who watch him day in, day out have learned a few things about him in the past seven years. He will only rock the boat when he is 100 percent certain of the outcome of the rocking process – and knows it will be for the good of all, himself included.

 

You know, I once translated into English a thick volume by Prof. Molchanov about De Gaulle, and there was one lesson I learned from that book: a really great man has a great deal of bloody-mindedness in his ego structure, an ability to tell practically the whole world to go to hell, and to charge ahead as a mad bull. Putin is a bit of a smoothy – or that is my impression.

 

I would dearly love to be mistaken.

 

Best,

Sergei

 

Ron Hamilton’s reply:
 
One of the things that I think we do when we observe someone closely is to notice their faults more so than a historian writing about them a few years later. And, if we are fair-minded we notice their virtues as well. Putin may not seem great to us now at this time, but what he has done for Russia is nothing short of a miracle in my opinion. The state of the Federation today as compared to seven years ago is beyond what was imaginable then. The number of correct steps, well-timed speeches, proper voice tones, proper word choices, proper relationship building, correct reactions to insults and affronts, and the strategic vision required to steer Russia through the last seven years cannot be attributed to pure chance or luck. 
 
His recent Munich speech was definitely an example of rocking the boat and got some very high level attention, but you are right he didn't do it until he knew that the outcome would be positive for Russia. American hubris though prevalent is much more muted after 5 years in Iraq, and the reaction among my country's decision-makers was less aggressive than it would have been five years ago when the Neocon group was convinced that spreading democracy at the end of a gun was the best path for achieving world stability. The reaction here at home, with some notable exceptions, was more of a puzzled zoinks! Let's get busy talking with Russia before we act unilaterally in areas that affect Russia.
 
On the other hand Russian morale is the pits. Most people are just plain worn out and don't seem to have the hardcore work ethic needed to pull the country up by the boot straps. Most of the younger Russian folks I've met working abroad aren't really working too hard. Most are looking for easy jobs and easy money. They display a cynicism so deep that I doubt it can ever be reversed. Likely a product of spending their formative years going through the breakup, financial meltdown, economic depression, and then having to take menial and sometimes demeaning jobs at home and abroad to make ends meet. I.e., university graduates, red diplomas, working in bars serving drinks 12 hours per day seven days per week or former military and police officers working in factories abroad sewing shoes for $500 per month with the same long hours.
 
I understand why you are hopeful but pessimistic at the same time. Many bad things could still happen along the perilous road to stability and normalcy for your country and people.

Best regards,
 

Ron Hamilton

 

 


Комментарии

22 марта 2016
oyfceegfh
For more information on Bridges and his artwork, contact Bridges Studio 12:01 at BridgesStudio1201@gmail.com. louis vuitton bags "We're not done cleaning it up. p www.coachoutletstores.net.co
com or at 573-4192. michael kors outlet The university filed a motion to strike a reference to Manning from the Title IX lawsuit.
Part of Lillard's career success against the Lakers has to due with when he came into the league, entering the NBA just as the franchise started to sputter. That also explains some of what happened Sunday night. The 2-11 Lakers were disjointed down the stretch and that no doubt helped the Blazers pull away. But even beating a bad team comes with its own challenges. Lillard dished out most of the pain, but the Blazers victory was part of a collective effort. www.coachhandbagsdeal.us.com I do think we need better teachers, better legislators, and better pay certainly helps out. t ray ban sunglasses
Here's a look at some of the highlights, in GIF form, in chronological order cheap nfl jerseys For one thing, the project always had a tissue-thin business plan that included very little demand analysis or industry scoping.
z Upon ratification, workers would get $8,000 signing bonuses - well above the $3,000 and $4,000 bonuses promised to FCA workers. michael kors handbags The only rebounds they got early seemed to bounce right to them, and South Carolina playing without senior Michael Carrera, who leads the Gamecocks in scoring and rebounding cruised to a 3624 halftime lead. michael kors outlet online
Storts has eight grand children. michael kors outlet Carter, a married father and grandfather, was released shortly after his arrest in May on a $40,000 bond. http://www.raybansunglassesebay.us.com
"I know what's coming ahead with the Pac-12 coming around, So I'm just (letting) everybody like Tyler and Trevor (Manuel) and those freshmen and those guys (know) that these games are going to be like every single game in the Pac-12," Brooks said. "Every game is a must-win game because you don't know if you're not going to make the tournament." coach outlet Unlimited overtime. m louis vuitton outlet
He was still in college when he got his first artwork placed in a gallery. www.louisvuittonhandbagsbuy.us.com "?style video-ad-asset-container, video-ad-asset-container-played max-height: 0px; overflow: hidden; -webkit-transition: max-height 1s; -moz-transition: max-height 1s; transition: max-height 1s; video-ad-asset-container.
Spring ExhibitionMarch 10-April 17; Kunsthal Charlottenborg, Nyhavn 2, Cph K; 60kr; foraarsudstillingen. michael kors outlet He's being held in juvenile detention for a hearing in family court.
But a recent surge in the index, up about 14% since the middle of February, may signal that an end to the IPO drought is in sight, says Smith. coach handbags That's the new title sponsor and new name of the PGA Tour event at Colonial.
The ovary is responsible for producing six mainhormones: estadiol, estriol, estrone, progesterone, testosteroneand DHEA. http://www.michaelkors.us.org Langston, who ordered the sentences run concurrently, said the minister would have to request a hearing on the matter.
g The goal of WWP s investment in these organizations is to increase acess to programs and services provided to wounded veterans across the nation. http://www.coachoutletstoreonline.me Rincon/University at Palo Verde, 3:30 p.
This idea has nothing to do with negligence or accidents, though. cheap nfl jerseys Kirkpatrick has strong support from the tribal communities, but CD1 is a classic swing district that could go to either party. y michael kors outlet
"I have reviewed the messages and I do not see what makes them classified. michael kors outlet store ItЎЇs not just about letting each side play in its entirety, but more about sitting or lying down with those cans (headphones) over your ears and holding that album in your hands and staring intently at each side of it while the music blew out your eardrums.
k Olivia Dendinger, Glencoe, junior louis vuitton bags ItЎЇs not a prototypical Foleycoached team, but itЎЇs close enough to a winning formula for a team that struggled to find an identity. r
Lederer at the United Nations and Dave Bryan in New York contributed to this report michael kors outlet online Although he lived around the world, he always considered South Carolina his home and lived in the coastal Lowcountry since the late 1990s. michael kors bags
"I haven't been there before," the 12-year-old explains. michael kors outlet online BAPTIST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTERNORTH LITTLE ROCK k louis vuitton outlet online
The name came to Hastings in a moment of inspiration on a trip to New York City, while he was dining at chef Seamus Mullen's Spanish restaurant Tertulia. coach outlet store online (AP) Five people have been killed in an ambush-style shooting during a backyard party in suburban Pittsburgh and at least two gunmen are at large, police said.
"It's by far one of the easiest ways to get more water at a reasonable price," Anthony said. oakley sunglasses Flirting with the Big Leagues v michael kors outlet
SOUTH WILLIAMSPORT - Little League has tweaked its new age determination date for its baseball program so certain 13-year-olds still would be eligible in 2018 http://www.michaelkorshandbagsoutletbuy.us.com You and president Reagan will forever be in our hearts.
22 марта 2016
iglcaaahy
The tribes are cutting as much and as fast as they can, until winter shuts down the hauling. Weather will further degrade the quality of the wood. Prices also are dropping with so much wood on the market, says Cody Desautel, natural-resources director for the tribes. "It's a race against time." www.louisvuittonhandbagsbuy.co.uk Shares of consumer products and technology companies fell. s ray ban sunglasses
Midway Bowling is located at 1561 Holly Pike, South Middleton Twp. ray ban sunglasses Moreno Pastoral Center into a community center and affordable housing for seniors if the foundation receives federal low-income housing tax credits in June, said Bishop Gerald Kicanas at a news conference Friday.
--Mike Richman @ coach online store "WeЎЇve stayed true to our philosophy of building a team with players who want to be Denver Broncos and want to be here. k oakley glasses
The Easter Bunny will appear at the indoor event with gifts and prizes for all young participants. michael kors handbags This is a real learning curve for me.
w Banegas' findings will undergo peer review, and he expects them to be published early next year. michael kors outlet online Joseph Raper, already in an Alabama prison on fraud and theft convictions, got an additional threeyear sentence for using a smartphone smuggled into the lockup and posing as a trucking company employee to order tires from a Florida retailer, and then reselling the tires to third parties at a discount. www.louisvuittonhandbagsbuy.co.uk
The event will be visible as a partial eclipse in parts of Australia and Asia coach outlet River Valley 9-1. http://www.louisvuittonhandbags.us.org
Dorothy Randall, Dorothy Beach, Darlene A. Beach and George Randall to Anthony Resnick, 10-12 Myrtle St., $150,000. http://www.coachfactorysoutlet.com It was also discussed that the majority of these billions would most likely be paid by committing 100% of the 1/2 cent sales tax for the next 20 years. b coach outlet store online
"The flower is sort of like the icing on the cake," she says. michael kors outlet Saguaro used an 11-hit attack and some solid relief pitching to beat Seton Catholic 5-2 on Tuesday.
The Balers, who are the hottest team in the Monterey Bay League's Gabilan Division, find themselves in second place behind Salinas. http://o.storeonlinecc.com At a packed Town Hall meeting last spring, Dragonfly Industries representatives assured residents that the technology was sound and that the project would go forward with or without annexation into the city.
The guard behind the governor's killing, Mumtaz Qadri, was hanged this week. coach outlet store online "This kind of match you need to win.
I do think we need better teachers, better legislators, and better pay certainly helps out. cheap ray ban sunglasses THE WEEK AHEAD
z Potatoes turn green when they have been exposed to too much light or when they age. www.raybanoutlet.name What we need to do is muck up the game a little bit, to guard some of their best players and be a force that way.
But the forest of construction cranes sprouting around this petrochemical hub tell the flip side of the story, as some of the same forces that drove down those prices sparked tens of billions of dollars in investment in new processing plants to take advantage of cheap and plentiful supplies of oil and gas. www.raybansunglassesbuy.co.uk in Mesa. d coach outlet store online
Adrien Rabiot abriЁ® la cuenta por PSG, con un pase de Ibrahimovic, y Diego Costa empatЁ® 11 minutos despuЁ¦s. ray ban sunglasses Independence Day is a celebration of becoming independent.
v Comcast SportsNet Northwest Oregon State's game at Rice on Thursday at 6 p.m. michael kors bags Aden descended into lawlessness after a Saudiled coalition recaptured the city from Shiite Houthi rebels last summer. m
Many smugglers are captured. cheap oakleys He led 224 of 312 laps on the odd-shaped mile oval and pulled away on several late restarts for his fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup victory at PIR, passing Jimmie Johnson for the most at the track. coach handbags
Mason Plumlee's strong play. Is he a long-term piece? michael kors outlet online The spring allows the LifeLink to unfold for charging or fold back together for storage in a wallet. v michael kors outlet online
The Damascus wrestling program trying to stay in that dynasty status. michael kors outlet online 1 Desert Mountain vs.
But he leaves Tulane with one of the most interesting college football paths in the country. Few players proved more valuable to their programs the past four college football seasons. http://www.louisvuittonhandbagsbuy.us.com He knows your needs, and wants to lead you to the spouse He has for you. h coach factory outlet store
Another Monmouth poll out Monday shows Rubio running fourth in Michigan. michael kors outlet online CORRECTS RESERVATION LOCATION TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA- This undated photo provided by Fann Contracting, Inc.
24 ноября 2015
chenyan
air max 90, oakley sunglasses, jordan retro, burberry sale, hermes bags, jimmy choo, jerseys-fromchina.in.net, michael kors outlet online, oakley store, north face outlet, oakley glasses, gucci outlet, cheap eyeglasses, rolex watches, nike free, north face jackets, jordansretro.in.net, burberry outlet, louboutin outlet, beats by dre, basketball shoes, michael kors, michael kors handbags, ralph lauren outlet, boots on sale, burberry handbags, oakley sunglasses wholesale, nike-shoes.in.net, reebok shoes, gucci handbags, polo ralph lauren, mizuno, uggs outlet, abercrombie and fitch, abercrombie, nike air max, polo outlet, hermes birkin, michael kors outlet, jimmy choo outlet, ray ban sunglasses outlet, red bottom shoes, hollister clothing store, balenciaga.in.net, roshe run, tommy-hilfiger.us.com, marc jacobs, insanity workout, oakley vault, michael kors outlet online sale, uggs on sale, true religion jeans, uggs outlet, hermes handbags, cheap jordans, oakley vault, mizuno running shoes, cheap oakley sunglasses, mizunowave.net, oakley sunglasses, lululemon.com.co, polo ralph lauren outlet online, birkin bag, ray ban sunglasses, gucci bags, cheap-jordan-shoes.net, bebe dresses, nike shoes, levi's jeans, burberry outlet, lululemon, rolex replica watches, true religion outlet, jordan shoes, tory burch, ed hardy, ralph lauren polo, vans outlet, michael kors, polo ralph lauren outlet, gucci outlet, rolex watches for sale, polo ralph lauren, hermes belt, cheap gucci, michael kors outlet, new balance, wedding--dresses.net, uggs, ferragamo belts, ugg outlet, levisjeans.in.net, Balenciaga, designer-handbags.us.com, ugg boots, burberry outlet online, louboutin, ray ban sunglasses, coach outlet, hollister, mizuno, nike mercurial, oakley vault, ray ban outlet, louboutin shoes, mizuno running, nike free 5.0, cheap oakley sunglasses, uggs outlet, christian louboutin outlet, christian louboutin, nikeshoesinc.net, chanel bags, beats headphones, cheap jerseys, true religion outlet, oakley sunglasses outlet, ugg boots, gucci outlet online, bebedresses.in.net, air max 95, gucci belts, tory burch outlet online, oakley sale, oakley sunglasses cheap, true religion, michael kors, michael kors, mizuno wave, sunglasses outlet, air jordan, uggs on sale, air max, air max 2015, cheap-jerseys.in.net, ugg boots clearance, new balance shoes, airmax-95.in.net, rolex watch, north face outlet online, ray ban sunglasses, airmax-90.in.net, jimmy choo shoes, mont blanc, reebok-shoes.net, michael kors outlet, fake oakleys, omega watches, cheap nfl jerseys, wedding dresses, toms outlet, ed hardy clothing, designer handbags, replica watches, ugg boots clearance, jerseys from china, christian louboutin shoes, mont blanc pens, bootsonsale.com.co, ferragamo shoes, tiffany and co, replica rolex, oakley sunglasses cheap, air-jordan.in.net, burberry, nike roshe run, oakley outlet, cheap oakley sunglasses, nike shoes, burberry outlet online, nfl jerseys, tory burch outlet, toms shoes, marcjacobs.in.net, vans shoes, timberland boots, oakley sunglasses, cheap sunglasses, burberry factory outlet, gucci handbags, michael kors outlet online sale, uggs, nike roshe, marc jacobs, chanel handbags, yoga-pants.in.net, tommy hilfiger outlet, tory burch outlet online, rolex replica, michael kors handbags, nike air max 2015, omega-watches.in.net, ralph lauren outlet, uggs on sale, ugg outlet, tiffany jewelry, discount oakley sunglasses, yoga pants, fake rolex, michael kors outlet online, burberry, new balance outlet, cheap basketball shoes, polo ralph lauren outlet, bcbgmax.in.net, nike free run, cheap oakley sunglasses, cheap-jordans.in.net, tommy hilfiger, michael kors outlet online, bcbg max, harrods, tory burch outlet, jerseys, ferragamo, oakley sunglasses cheap, cheap-eyeglasses.us.com, coachoutlet-store.in.net, ralph lauren outlet online, uggs outlet online, hollister clothing, nikefree-5.com, tommyhilfigeroutlet.net, cheap oakley, gucci shoes

Написать комментарий

Ваше имя:

Текст комментария
Подтвердите код, изображенный на рисунке

Читайте также

Наши партнеры

 
 
 
 

Полезные ссылки

Корпоративная безопасность

Аутсорсинг безопасности

  

Консалтинг безопасности 

Работа в СБ

Проверки на полиграфе

Работа телохранителя  

Проверка контрагентов

Юридический консалтинг

Возврат долгов

Судебная защита Сопровождение сделок
Судебные экспертизы Внесудебные экспертизы Реестр ЧОО НСБ Третейский суд
Системы безопасности Системы контроля доступа Видеонаблюдение Системы охранной сигнализации
Адвокаты Москвы Адвокат по гражданским делам Лучший адвокат Решение вопросов

 


Продолжается работа НСОПБ по формированию федерального Комитета по оценке компетентности организаций ...
Роскомнадзор продолжает мониторить просторы рунета и блокировать ресурсы, которые нарушают действующ ...
В Большом кинозале Центрального музея Великой Отечественной войны на Поклонной горе состоялся Форум ...
22 ноября в пресс-центре медиа-холдинга РБК прошла организованная Гильдией негосударственных структу ...
21 ноября 2018 в Москве дан старт инвестиционной неделе ОАЭ. Инвестиционной Форум Абу-Даби – Москва ...
Решения по вопросам ценообразования и конкуренции на рынке охранных услуг предложат эксперты в ОП РФ ...
22 ноября состоялась конференция «Умный город – безопасный город», организованная МТПП совместно с Р ...
Дни Арктики в Москве
Арктический Форум “Дни Арктики в Москве” – мероприятие с традициями, проводитс ...
Мнение эксперта
Владимир Платонов МТПП
"За последние годы в Москве произошли качественные сдвиги ...
15 ноября 2018 года в рамках IV Форума Комплексной Безопасности «Безопасность. Крым-2018» в ГК "Ялта ...

Авторизация

Логин:   Пароль:    
   
  Забыли пароль? | Регистрация    
[x]
        Rambler's Top100